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GBP/USD Rises Post-Hot Jobs Report: Navigating the BoE Rate Hike Impact

Fundamental Overview

The British Pound today is exhibiting volatility in reaction to the UK's labour market data. The wage growth figures exceeded expectations, slowing to 7.9% compared to the anticipated 7.3%.


The number of payroll employees in October also saw an uptick, defying expectations, and the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%.


A strong jobs report generally signals a robust economy, which could lead to a bullish outlook for the currency due to the potential for inflationary pressures that might prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates. However, the underlying data suggests emerging weaknesses.


The Resolution Foundation points out that high-frequency pay growth data indicates a slowdown from 8% to around 4% in the private sector over the past six months, suggesting that the BOE's interest rate hikes are starting to have the desired cooling effect on the economy.


Moreover, job vacancies have fallen below one million, still higher than pre-pandemic levels but showing a significant decline, especially in the private sector. This mixed data paints a complex picture, making it challenging for traders and the BOE to navigate the current economic landscape.


Intraday Forex Signal for GBP/USD

  • Pair: GBP/USD

  • Trade Direction: BULLISH

  • Trade Probability: 65%

  • Yesterday's Trend: Fluctuating with a bullish rebound post-data release.

  • Pivot Point: $1.23 mark breached briefly indicates a potential pivot.

Indicators:

  • Volatility: Mixed with a spike following the jobs report.

  • Moving Average (MA): The pair is oscillating around the MA, suggesting indecision in the market.

  • Ichimoku: The Ichimoku cloud may be starting to offer support, indicating bullish potential.

  • RSI: At 54.18, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, supporting potential for movement in either direction.

  • Bollinger Bands: The price touching the upper band suggests a potential for a pullback or continued bullish trend.

🎯 Targets for Taking Profits (Buy):

  1. 1st Resistance Level: Just above the $1.23 mark.

  2. 2nd Resistance Level: Mid-range of recent high fluctuations.

  3. 3rd Resistance Level: Approaching the highest recent peak.

❌ Stop Loss Guidelines (Buy):

  • Set the stop loss just below the most recent support level before the rally following the jobs report.

Suggestion:

Considering the fundamental data and current technical indicators, a cautious BULLISH stance is suggested for the GBP/USD pair.


Traders should watch for stability above the $1.23 pivot point for confirmation, set a stop loss below the recent support, and target the identified resistance levels for taking profits.


Keep an eye on further economic releases and market sentiment, as the situation is fluid and subject to rapid change.


As with all investments, your capital is at risk. Investments can fall and rise and you

may get back less than you invested.


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