Navigating the Financial Markets During the US Election: Opportunities and Volatility
- Champ Profit Team
- Oct 12, 2020
- 2 min read
Updated: Sep 6, 2023
Introduction:
As we grow weary of the seemingly endless US election campaign that began two years ago, one thing remains certain: the financial world will experience significant repercussions, regardless of the outcome. With the incumbent president, Trump, potentially securing a second term, or Biden bringing about a change in leadership and Congress, the possibilities are diverse and the volatility is palpable.
Exploring Past Market Reactions:
Looking back at the 2016 election, we witnessed notable market movements immediately following the results. The Dow soared, financials surged, gold prices fluctuated, and oil prices experienced a rebound. Volatility was the name of the game.
Currencies:
During this election season, currencies such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD are likely to exhibit heightened volatility. Investors will analyse the effects of the likely winner's foreign policies, including trade agreements and the ongoing trade war with China. The recovery rates of different economies from the pandemic will also play a significant role. It's worth noting that the safe-haven Japanese Yen often finds support in these uncertain times.
Indices:
Investors will intensify their positions as they evaluate each candidate's approach to international trade and taxation. As a result, indices are expected to experience increased volatility during and after the election, as market participants grapple with the potential turbulence and the aftermath.
Stocks:
The policy direction of the winning candidate will significantly impact individual companies and investor sentiment. Industries ranging from alternative energy to healthcare will be influenced by the new administration's policies. Traders must closely monitor these developments to identify potential winners and losers amidst the economic crises caused by the pandemic.
Commodities:
The prices of oil and gold are also likely to fluctuate as futures traders analyse the elected president's policies and make their investment decisions. Uncertainty often drives up the price of gold, while economic instability has the opposite effect on oil prices.
Navigating the Volatility:
Historically, market gains have averaged 5% higher when a new party wins, while stock market returns usually increase by 6.5% when the incumbent president is re-elected. However, if a candidate contests the result, expect wild swings in the market. Traders who embrace volatility will find numerous opportunities and trends in the coming weeks, with movements potentially continuing until the inauguration of the elected president.
Financial Markets During the US Election:
As traders, we are indifferent to the political landscape. Our focus lies in uncovering opportunities amidst the volatility. With historically low interest rates and bonds, the stock market presents an attractive investment avenue. Tech stocks, in particular, have shown remarkable performance. The markets will find stability once they digest the future policies and regain confidence in the incumbent. No matter the election outcome, it's crucial to understand the impact on various assets and markets. If you're ready to capitalise on these opportunities, sign up with our preferred regulated brokers and let us assist you in navigating the exciting world of trading during this critical time.
For more insights and reliable information, visit us at www.champprofit.com. Champ Profit is your go-to resource for making smart financial decisions, with tools and data designed to help you triumph in the world of finance.
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